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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-02T04:17:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-02T04:17Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28948/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in all coronagraphs. Source is an eruption from AR 3571 with an associated impulsive M1.1 class flare that peaked at 2024-02-02T03:01Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as field line movement and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and dark filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304. It is possible that the L1 arrival signature unfolding over 2023-02-04 to 2023-02-06 includes the arrival of this (or another) CME arrival, as it includes a drop in temperature and density on 2024-02-05, however the gradual increases in Btotal and solar wind speed as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components are largely more indicative of a high speed stream.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-06T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:T2024-02-02 10:57
Radial velocity (km/s):486
Longitude (deg):-56
Latitude (deg):-41
Half-angular width (deg):45

Notes:Earth miss with very slight chance of graze of CME 06-Feb 00UT. Did not expect impulsive M1 to produce SE directed CME.

Lead Time: 24.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-02-05T05:26Z

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